Monday, February 26, 2018

Illinois Most Entrenched Districts

Illinois has been a problem for a very long time. The following chart is based on people currently serving in the Illinois General Assembly:

This chart is skewed because it's based on currently serving incumbents, but it does show a rapid increase it the rate that seats are turned over. However the power of the house and senate lie within the list of the longest serving, most entrenched incumbents. The turnover over the years has accomplished little, due to the hidden power structure behind the veneer of what we are taught in public school about how politics works Here is the list of top most entrenched districts in Illinois:


NameDistrictPartyChamberStart DateYears
Michael J. Madigan22DHouse197147
Barbara Flynn Currie25DHouse197939
David Harris53RHouse198335
Mary E. Flowers31DHouse198533
Lou Lang16DHouse198731
Daniel J. Burke1DHouse199127
Jay Hoffman113DHouse199127
Jim Durkin82RHouse199523
Sara Feigenholtz12DHouse199523
Michael P. McAuliffe20RHouse199622
Patricia R. Bellock47RHouse199919
Bill Mitchell101RHouse199919
Keith P. Sommer88RHouse199919
Dan Brady105RHouse200117
Cynthia Soto4DHouse200117
Linda Chapa LaVia83DHouse200315
William Davis30DHouse200315
Robert W. Pritchard70RHouse200315
Robert Rita28DHouse200315
John C. D'Amico15DHouse200414
David B. Reis109RHouse200513
Luis Arroyo3DHouse200612
Gregory Harris13DHouse200612
Fred Crespo44DHouse200711
La Shawn K. Ford8DHouse200711
Mike Fortner49RHouse200711
Elizabeth Hernandez24DHouse200711
Al Riley38DHouse200711
Michael J. Zalewski23DHouse200810
John J. Cullerton6DSenate197939
William E. Brady44RSenate199325
Dave Syverson35RSenate199325
James F. Clayborne, Jr.57DSenate199523
Terry Link30DSenate199721
Kimberly A. Lightford4DSenate199820
Dale A. Righter55RSenate199820
Antonio Muñoz1DSenate199919
Ira I. Silverstein8DSenate199919
William R. Haine56DSenate200216
Pamela J. Althoff32RSenate200315
Jacqueline Y. Collins16DSenate200315
Don Harmon39DSenate200315
Mattie Hunter3DSenate200315
Iris Y. Martinez20DSenate200315
Chapin Rose51RSenate200315
Martin A. Sandoval11DSenate200315
Kwame Raoul13DSenate200414
David Koehler46DSenate200612
Jil Tracy47RSenate200612
Linda Holmes42DSenate200711
Tim Bivins45RSenate200810
Heather A. Steans7DSenate200810

Friday, February 16, 2018

The Rise and Fall of Springfield, Illinois


While doing research on the housing market I came across FRED, the Federal Reserve Economic Database. After viewing their charts I began to see a clearer picture of why people in Springfield seem to be so apathetic and resistant to change. I compiled some charts on a website which I may update if the numbers can be refuted, or there are some positive changes to report. Click the link below to view the site.

Monday, February 05, 2018

City Sales Tax Issue



The State Journal-Register reported "At least half of Springfield aldermen oppose raising sales tax" apparently to 8.75%. Springfield has a population around 115,715. Seattle, Washington has an official population of 608,660 as of the 2010 census, but the wider metro area has a population of at least 3.5 million people. The state of Washington has no income tax. Seattle has a sales tax of 9.6%. 6.5% of which goes to the state, 2.7% goes to the city of Seattle.

Currently, Springfield's sales tax rate is 6.25% but the total combined city, county and state sales tax is already at 8.5%, plus there's an income tax rate ranging from 3.75% to 4.95%.

The problem: Population shrinkage. According to the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), The civilian labor force in Springfield, Illinois peaked in 2010 and as of November 2017, was at the level it was in 2005, and continuing to decline.

[edit] Looking at the Per Capita Personal Income in Springfield, IL (MSA) shows a steady increase since 1970, but this chart relies on whose data is collected. It could reflect the growth of income inequality. In other words, poor people earning less while wealthy people earn more. Wages have been stagnant over the last 30 years, while capital gains increased dramatically.

The unemployment rate in Springfield, IL according to FRED seems to be declining almost in a similar fashion as the Civilian Workforce, meaning the unemployment rate is lower because there are fewer jobs and fewer people.

So, imagine what a tax increase would do to Springfield. Some factors include the following:

  • People inextricably tied to their home because the mortgage is "underwater" or there are no buyers looking.
  • People in retirement or nursing care facilities on fixed incomes.
  • People inextricably tied to a government job that requires them to reside in or around Springfield.
  • Businesses whose customers are most frequently the people listed above.
  • Crain's: Slow growth, aging population plaguing Illinois.
Eventually, the tax burden will fall on who remains in town. It might be wise to relocate people away from the oldest, most vulnerable infrastructure and close off those older parts of Springfield until such a time as industry returns to the area.